• CPP identifies the ‘British BRICS’ (Blackburn, Rother, Inverclyde, Conwy and Stoke-on-Trent) representative of more than sixty disadvantaged places which have high productivity potential and should be targeted for government ‘levelling up’ investment
• ‘Levelling up outlook’ report predicts unemployment claims could surpass 3.7 million when furlough ends – exceeding 1980s levels
• CPP calls on the government to devolve powers and funding to local authorities to maximise employment and investment opportunities and make Britain fit for Brexit

A year since the Tories swept to power on the promise of levelling up the country, a new report from the Centre for Progressive Policy suggests the UK faces a jobs crisis as bad as the 1980s when furlough ends in April.

The quarterly ‘levelling up outlook’ report, which tracks government’s progress against its key election pledges, suggests claimant counts could peak at 3.7 million next year, without a significant increase in job creation. Based on the number of new jobs available during the summer, which tracked at 35% lower than pre-Covid levels, CPP argues job creation prospects remain poor.

When it comes to mitigating the worst effects of the crisis and delivering on the levelling up agenda, the report suggests the ‘Green Revolution’ may merely be a drop in the ocean. The research reveals the government’s proposed 250,000 new jobs amount to an average of around 25,000 new jobs per annum, with the green economy set to account for between just one to two percent of total UK employment by 2030.

CPP argues instead for a practical, bottom-up approach to investing in jobs and businesses of the future. In an accompanying policy report ‘A gear change for growth: devolving industrial policy to help local economies thrive’, CPP identifies prominent, high growth, place-based industries, which could be nurtured through locally led strategies. This would allow local authorities to build back better and create new good jobs to make Britain fit for Brexit. The report identifies more than sixty opportunities for levelling up in places represented by a British BRICS (Blackburn, Rother, Inverclyde, Conwy and Stoke-on-Trent), spanning the length and breadth of the country.

To deliver on the levelling up agenda and avoid a significant jobs crisis, CPP is calling on the government to:

• Introduce a British Manufacturing Fund. The fund should be used to safeguard the industry, and to invest in rapidly growing, high value-added manufacturers who are creating jobs in priority areas.
• Give mayors powers over skills training, local industrial policy and long-term investment via the Levelling Up Fund, UKSPF and the new British Manufacturing Fund.
• Reverse cuts to the adult education budget and devolve the National Skills Fund to mayors. Mayoral Combined Authorities need to be empowered to commission further education provision in sync with their local industrial strategy to drive an inclusive jobs recovery.

Andy Norman, Research analyst, Centre for Progressive Policy

In the past, approaches to industrial policy in the UK have typically been centrally directed, aligning with narrow national priorities. Bottom-up techniques which consider the realities of places are better equipped to deliver on the levelling up agenda. This approach includes creating opportunities to retrain and reskill, ensuring local people can access these new, well-paid jobs.

If we are to level up the country and prevent a jobs crisis, we must trust local leaders to do what is best for their areas. Rather than Whitehall picking winners, we need an approach to industrial strategy that centralises place, and that capitalises on the local assets and opportunities that exist across the country.

Notes to the editor

1. British BRICS: The term 'British BRICS' highlights local areas that need additional financial support and decision making powers to unleash their potential. The original term 'BRICs' coined by economist Jim O'Neill included some countries that required a change in policies, but not additional financial help.
2. Place-based productivity opportunities in the UK: see table below
3. Unemployment benefits: There are currently 2.7 million people claiming unemployment benefit. Assuming half of those still furloughed by mid-October were in jobs that no longer exist and end up on unemployment benefit the claimant count could rise to 3.7 million.
4. Green Economy: We use the ONS’ definition of green economy which is the low carbon and renewable energy economy.
5. High productivity sectors: The approach used to identify high productivity sectors that have the potential for growth in left behind areas combines a number of datasets and applies the following filters:
   • The least productive third of local authorities. This is used as a proxy for areas in most need of levelling up.
   • Sector must have above average productivity, measured in terms of output per hour. Due to data limitations, this is determined at the national level.
   • Sector GVA must have grown more quickly than the national average over the past 5 years. The logic behind this approach is that existing growth is a decent proxy for future potential growth, with the hope that a snowball effect can accelerate the process.
   • Sector must of a reasonable size. This is to filter out sectors too small to make a meaningful impact. The minimum threshold is set at 5% of local GVA.
   • Sector’s size relative to the local economy must be growing. This is measured by positive growth in the sector’s share of local GVA in the past five years.
   • Sector share of employment is within 15 percentage points of sector share of GVA. This is to exclude sectors which have high levels of GVA but low levels of employment and thus limited ability to provide broad-based benefits.
6. About CPP: The Centre for Progressive Policy is a think tank committed to making inclusive economic growth a reality. By working with national and local partners, our aim is to devise effective, pragmatic policy solutions to drive productivity and shared prosperity in the UK. Inclusive growth is one of the most urgent questions facing advanced economies where stagnant real wages are squeezing living standards and wealth is increasingly concentrated. CPP believes that a new approach to growth is needed, harnessing the best of central and local government to shape the national economic environment and build on the assets and opportunities of place. The Centre for Progressive Policy is funded by Lord Sainsbury and host of the Inclusive Growth Network.
7. For more information on the Centre for Progressive Policy, please see www.progressive-policy.net or follow @CentreProPolicy
8. For media requests contact Thomas Hauschildt, THauschildt@progressive-policy.net.

Place-based productivity opportunities in the UK

Region	Local authority	Sector
East Midlands	Rutland	Agriculture, mining, electricity, gas, water and waste
East Midlands	High Peak	Agriculture, mining, electricity, gas, water and waste
East Midlands	Lincoln	Agriculture, mining, electricity, gas, water and waste
East Midlands	Boston	Agriculture, mining, electricity, gas, water and waste
East Midlands	South Kesteven	Agriculture, mining, electricity, gas, water and waste
East of England	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Manufacture of wood, petroleum, chemicals and minerals
East of England	Castle Point	Manufacture of metals, electrical products and machinery
North East	Gateshead	Manufacture of wood, petroleum, chemicals and minerals
North East	Northumberland	Manufacture of wood, petroleum, chemicals and minerals
North West	South Lakeland	Manufacture of wood, petroleum, chemicals and minerals
North West	St. Helens	Manufacture of wood, petroleum, chemicals and minerals
North West	Blackburn with Darwen	Manufacture of wood, petroleum, chemicals and minerals
North West	Oldham	Public administration and defence
North West	Oldham	Manufacture of metals, electrical products and machinery
Northern Ireland	Armagh City, Banbridge and Craigavon	Manufacture of food, beverages, textiles and clothing
Northern Ireland	Fermanagh and Omagh	Manufacture of food, beverages, textiles and clothing
Scotland	Inverclyde	Public administration and defence
Scotland	Scottish Borders	Manufacture of wood, petroleum, chemicals and minerals
Scotland	Dumfries and Galloway	Manufacture of wood, petroleum, chemicals and minerals
Scotland	South Ayrshire	Manufacture of food, beverages, textiles and clothing
Scotland	East Ayrshire	Public administration and defence
Scotland	South Lanarkshire	Public administration and defence
Scotland	Argyll and Bute	Manufacture of food, beverages, textiles and clothing
Scotland	Renfrewshire	Manufacture of food, beverages, textiles and clothing
South East	Thanet	Agriculture, mining, electricity, gas, water and waste
South East	Lewes	Public administration and defence
South East	Rother	Manufacture of wood, petroleum, chemicals and minerals
South East	Arun	Manufacture of metals, electrical products and machinery
South East	Chichester	Manufacture of metals, electrical products and machinery
South East	Gosport	Manufacture of wood, petroleum, chemicals and minerals
South East	Hastings	Manufacture of metals, electrical products and machinery
South East	Gravesham	Manufacture of wood, petroleum, chemicals and minerals
South East	Oxford	Manufacture of metals, electrical products and machinery
South East	Isle of Wight	Manufacture of metals, electrical products and machinery
South East	Ashford	Manufacture of wood, petroleum, chemicals and minerals
South West	Stroud	Manufacture of metals, electrical products and machinery
South West	Torbay	Manufacture of metals, electrical products and machinery
South West	North Devon	Public administration and defence
South West	South Hams	Public administration and defence
South West	West Devon	Manufacture of food, beverages, textiles and clothing
South West	West Devon	Public administration and defence
South West	Cheltenham	Manufacture of metals, electrical products and machinery
South West	Plymouth	Manufacture of metals, electrical products and machinery
Wales	Pembrokeshire	Manufacture of wood, petroleum, chemicals and minerals
Wales	Gwynedd	Manufacture of metals, electrical products and machinery
Wales	Gwynedd	Public administration and defence
Wales	Conwy	Public administration and defence
Wales	Ceredigion	Manufacture of wood, petroleum, chemicals and minerals
Wales	Torfaen	Manufacture of metals, electrical products and machinery
Wales	Torfaen	Public administration and defence
Wales	Powys	Public administration and defence
Wales	Blaenau Gwent	Public administration and defence
Wales	Blaenau Gwent	Manufacture of food, beverages, textiles and clothing
Wales	Denbighshire	Manufacture of metals, electrical products and machinery
West Midlands	Herefordshire, County of	Manufacture of food, beverages, textiles and clothing
West Midlands	Wychavon	Manufacture of metals, electrical products and machinery
West Midlands	South Staffordshire	Manufacture of metals, electrical products and machinery
West Midlands	Dudley	Public administration and defence
West Midlands	Stoke-on-Trent	Information and communication
West Midlands	Stoke-on-Trent	Manufacture of wood, petroleum, chemicals and minerals
West Midlands	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Manufacture of metals, electrical products and machinery
West Midlands	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Public administration and defence
Yorkshire and The Humber	Craven	Civil engineering