Hope amid the gloom
22 January 2024
4 minute read
The UK economy has seen its fair share of events this last decade: the turbulence instigated by a protracted Brexit, political upheaval at home
Over this time we have also seen levelling up flattened as a political mantra, the fallout of Liz Truss’ short-lived dash for growth and a rowing back of the UK’s commitment to net zero. All this risks inward investment, innovation and industry, and compounds longer-term challenges of demographic change and stagnant productivity growth.
UK productivity has not recovered from the financial crash in 2008 and the programme of austerity that followed stripped out local government and community capacity. It is not hard to paint a bleak picture of our recent past and harder still to look forward with confidence.
But something gives us hope. Quietly and resolutely, local leaders across the country have committed to a bold, visionary project – building the foundations for a more inclusive economy, where the opportunities and proceeds of economic growth are distributed more fairly. Social growth feeding economic growth and vice versa.
Making the theory of inclusive growth a reality, the members of the Centre for Progressive Policy Inclusive Growth Network (CPP/IGN) are pioneers in this field – knitting together the breadth of social, economic and institutional factors needed to make real, lasting change on the ground.
After the financial crash, a global debate emerged about the need for people to feel the benefits of gross domestic product growth in their everyday lives. In the UK, under the Coalition Government, this translated to ‘rebalancing the economy’ and the first stages of devolution of economic powers to local places.
George Osborne – heavily influenced by the work I led as secretary to the City Growth Commission – sought to revitalise economic growth outside London and the South East through the creation of mayoral combined authorities and the Northern Powerhouse.
But the shortcomings of the narrow definition of devolution and its economic levers, such as transport, housing, planning and business support, soon became clear. Places understood economic outcomes hinge upon a far wider array of social factors – from physical and mental health to early years and access to affordable childcare. Greater Manchester was ahead of its time, leading a ‘growth and public service reform’ agenda that helped to frame my thinking as director of the Inclusive Growth Commission – pushing for wider, integrated devolution of social policy powers to tackle inequalities, boost productivity and create more inclusive local economies.
I set up the CPP as a think-tank dedicated to finding practical, data-driven ways to achieve inclusive growth. We were levelling up before the term was invented.
What started on the margins as a handful of discrete projects has become increasingly mainstream. IGN members are living proof this ambition can form the bedrock of a new approach to local government and economic development. Just look to the landmark trailblazer deals of two of our members, Greater Manchester and the West Midlands, as an indication of what is possible and how the relationship between central and local government is changing.
The levelling up agenda and its cut through with the public also gives cause for hope. Only recently the debate was being framed as ‘North v South’ or ‘London v the Rest’ when the truth is the UK’s economic geographic is much more complex and requires more nuanced, localised solutions.
I hope the next phase of devolution in England will be inspired by the members of the IGN – from Bristol to Glasgow, Cardiff to Belfast – so that all places can chart their path to creating a more resilient, sustainable and productive UK economy.
Keir Starmer started 2024 with the launch of his ‘Project Hope’ – the kind ‘that levels with you about the hard road ahead, but which shows you a way through’.
The UK’s economic outlook is bleak. Yet, as I step down as chief executive of CPP, I am immensely proud our research, policy and practice shows – and will continue to show – that not only is there cause for hope, but there are as many ways through as there are diverse and locally-led places across the country.
Fair, inclusive growth is no mere pipe dream. We have the tools at our disposal to make it a reality.