This manifesto will secure the election, but will it change the country?
This was a zero-sum game manifesto to secure a Labour majority. The hard work of repairing the British state will need to start in earnest in July.
13 June 2024
3 minute read
Surprise surprise, Labour’s manifesto launch consisted of small scale pre-announced policies, which as the BBC’s Ben Chu highlighted, amounted to just 0.2% of GDP – the smallest of any major political party in this campaign. Their central message remains one of change via economic stability, symbolised by their stated fiscal rules which are - whisper it quietly - pretty much identical to the ones Jeremy Hunt has already been deploying. Only in the fine print on page 128 does it say Labour will still be able to borrow to invest (the word “borrowing” is only used twice across the entire document).
If there are radical parts of Labour’s plan, then they don’t come from proposed spending or investment, or tax reform, but from legislative and governance reforms. The preannounced New Deal for Working People to tackle low pay and insecurity is welcome – banning zero hours contracts, boosting the living wage especially for younger workers, introducing a single enforcement body and improving parental leave rights: these are all genuinely progressive steps.
There is similarly positive mood music on devolution threaded throughout the document. The vibes suggest an incoming government that is keen to marry more powers for regions on transport, skills and housing alongside providing the necessary resource and “capacity” to enable places to “deliver”. This includes a pledge to end competitive bidding and provide for multi-year funding settlements, giving more certainty in local strategic planning – something CPP has been calling for over many years.
And as already known, local growth plans will have a statutory footing and link with the government’s national industrial strategy. There are echos of Theresa May’s premiership and sector deals here, and Labour should learn the lessons of what did and did not work from this previous period.
Beyond all this, there has been a watering down of Labour’s position on various potential headline grabbers - the Green Prosperity Plan now amounts to around £4.7bn per annum down from the £28bn, and there is no plan for universal childcare with the Conservatives already stealing Labour’s thunder with their extra £4bn per annum targeted only at working families. It is striking that the second biggest public service spending policy is £855m investment on HMRC to reduce tax avoidance – that classic election nugget to bring in more revenue for the Treasury. And, drum roll…the top public service spending pledge is more investment in the NHS to get waiting lists down. Revolutionary this was not – and nor was it intended to be.
This was a manifesto from a party keen to secure power for the first time in 14 years – keen not to misstep in the last throes of this one-sided campaign. On entering government, they will face one of the toughest in-trays since the end of WWII. A dangerous multipolar world with the US at risk of stepping back, economic stagnation at home and abroad, public services at breaking point and child poverty rising. Incremental small steps and pledges may be sufficient to sustain an electoral advantage now, but the proof of the pudding will come in how this Labour leadership stands up to the very real and serious challenges to come. There is so much at stake.