COVID-19 local area health risk rating: 6 May 2020
Key findings using the latest data include:
- While overall case numbers are stalling, some parts of the country continue to see rises. 23 local areas saw their number of cases increase by over a quarter between the 26th of April and the 4th of May.
- The North West contains the biggest movers this week. Of those seeing the largest increases (and therefore rises in the top 50 risk rankings) Wigan jumps 17 places to 41, having seen its case load rise by 41% during the period. Bury rises 10 places to 27 and Salford rises 7 places to 26, both having seen a 36% rise in cases. Blackpool also continued its rise this week, now up to 5th (from 9th last week) in the rankings having seen a 26% rise in cases since the last update.
- In terms of total cumulative cases, the North Eastern areas of Sunderland, Gateshead, Middlesbrough and South Tyneside are all in the top 5 for cases per 100,000 people. With high levels of underlying systemic risk, these areas remain amongst the 12 riskiest places in our ranking.
Commentary on the results
There is increasing pressure to ease the lockdown as the number of new cases nationally slows and the estimated reproduction number drops below 1. This is one of the 5 key tests for ending lockdown – that the rate of infection “falls to manageable levels”. But it is not falling to manageable levels everywhere. A small but significant number of areas are continuing to see substantial rises in cases. These are some of the poorest areas of the country, with significant underlying vulnerabilities such as low healthy life expectancy and high levels of mortality from treatable conditions. Ending lockdown now would be premature for these places, risking a further spike in transmission in the places that can least weather it.
Last week’s analysis showed that having a high proportion of people unable to work from home could be driving this continual rise in case numbers for some areas. Government (local and national) must ensure that the health of those continuing to work in these areas is properly safeguarded and that wherever possible people can work from home.
Local authority risk ranking (1=most risky)
Please click here for more details about the health index including data and methods. For media enquiries email THauschildt@progressive-policy.net
| Local authority | COVID-19 cases per 100,000 | Healthy life expectancy | CQC score | Treatable mortality | % aged 65+ | Overall rank | Weekly change | CCG |
| Middlesbrough | 418.37 | 57.80 | 2.75 | 133.90 | 16.20 | 1 | 0 | NHS South Tees CCG |
| Walsall | 356.41 | 56.40 | 2.76 | 106.20 | 17.60 | 2 | 0 | NHS Walsall CCG |
| Wolverhampton | 338.54 | 58.70 | 2.77 | 118.90 | 16.60 | 3 | 1 | NHS Wolverhampton CCG |
| Wirral | 326.70 | 61.40 | 2.71 | 97.40 | 21.60 | 4 | -1 | NHS Wirral CCG |
| Blackpool | 343.13 | 53.30 | 3.04 | 134.80 | 20.40 | 5 | 4 | NHS Blackpool CCG |
| Gateshead | 438.01 | 60.80 | 2.84 | 99.60 | 19.40 | 6 | -1 | NHS Newcastle Gateshead CCG |
| Sandwell | 320.73 | 57.10 | 2.83 | 117.60 | 15.00 | 7 | 0 | NHS Sandwell and West Birmingham CCG |
| St. Helens | 376.56 | 59.20 | 2.89 | 101.40 | 20.40 | 8 | -2 | NHS St Helens CCG |
| Barnsley | 287.52 | 58.80 | 2.66 | 92.40 | 19.30 | 9 | 1 | NHS Barnsley CCG |
| Knowsley | 389.78 | 58.30 | 2.87 | 113.00 | 17.10 | 10 | -2 | NHS Knowsley CCG |
| South Tyneside | 405.95 | 58.90 | 2.87 | 93.30 | 20.00 | 11 | 1 | NHS South Tyneside CCG |
| Sunderland | 440.85 | 57.90 | 2.92 | 94.70 | 19.40 | 12 | -1 | NHS Sunderland CCG |
| Oldham | 338.68 | 58.00 | 2.87 | 111.90 | 16.10 | 13 | 3 | NHS Oldham CCG |
| Halton | 259.28 | 59.50 | 2.76 | 100.90 | 18.10 | 14 | -1 | NHS Halton CCG |
| Redcar and Cleveland | 243.57 | 60.60 | 2.83 | 102.60 | 22.30 | 15 | -1 | NHS South Tees CCG |
| Rotherham | 287.53 | 59.50 | 2.85 | 100.60 | 19.50 | 16 | -1 | NHS Rotherham CCG |
| Dudley | 262.92 | 59.40 | 2.81 | 89.60 | 20.30 | 17 | 1 | NHS Dudley CCG |
| Luton | 293.31 | 59.30 | 2.79 | 109.70 | 12.40 | 18 | -1 | NHS Luton CCG |
| Slough | 279.66 | 58.70 | 2.75 | 101.70 | 10.00 | 19 | 0 | NHS East Berkshire CCG |
| Hartlepool | 225.22 | 58.10 | 2.89 | 106.10 | 19.30 | 20 | 4 | NHS Hartlepool and Stockton-on-Tees CCG |
| Liverpool | 299.71 | 60.70 | 2.85 | 117.70 | 14.70 | 21 | -1 | NHS Liverpool CCG |
| Sheffield | 385.92 | 61.80 | 2.80 | 89.50 | 16.10 | 22 | 1 | NHS Sheffield CCG |
| Kingston upon Hull, City of | 195.28 | 57.20 | 2.81 | 118.30 | 15.00 | 23 | 3 | NHS Hull CCG |
| Tameside | 217.14 | 60.40 | 2.78 | 103.90 | 17.60 | 24 | -3 | NHS Tameside and Glossop CCG |
| Birmingham | 258.81 | 59.20 | 2.82 | 109.40 | 13.00 | 25 | -3 | NHS Birmingham and Solihull CCG |
| Salford | 297.95 | 58.00 | 2.91 | 110.40 | 14.30 | 26 | 7 | NHS Salford CCG |
| Bury | 303.51 | 60.40 | 2.89 | 96.80 | 18.20 | 27 | 10 | NHS Bury CCG |
| Stoke-on-Trent | 207.95 | 57.40 | 2.84 | 102.60 | 17.00 | 28 | 3 | NHS Stoke on Trent CCG |
| Manchester | 217.67 | 57.90 | 2.78 | 136.10 | 9.30 | 29 | -2 | NHS Manchester CCG |
| Wakefield | 165.78 | 58.60 | 2.76 | 94.70 | 18.90 | 30 | -5 | NHS Wakefield CCG |
| Bolton | 291.90 | 62.50 | 2.86 | 108.20 | 17.20 | 31 | -3 | NHS Bolton CCG |
| Lancashire | 244.78 | 60.40 | 2.88 | 93.26 | 20.50 | 32 | -3 | NHS Chorley and South Ribble CCG* |
| County Durham | 294.32 | 59.30 | 2.96 | 88.20 | 20.60 | 33 | 5 | NHS Durham Dales, Easington and Sedgefield CCG |
| Northumberland | 253.85 | 61.20 | 2.86 | 80.40 | 24.30 | 34 | -4 | NHS Northumberland CCG |
| Rochdale | 253.18 | 59.60 | 2.91 | 115.90 | 16.30 | 35 | 10 | NHS Heywood, Middleton and Rochdale CCG |
| Newcastle upon Tyne | 315.13 | 59.20 | 2.92 | 97.80 | 14.40 | 36 | -2 | NHS Newcastle Gateshead CCG |
| Stockton-on-Tees | 189.64 | 57.50 | 2.83 | 91.40 | 18.10 | 37 | -2 | NHS Hartlepool and Stockton-on-Tees CCG |
| Cumbria | 402.29 | 63.48 | 2.97 | 83.61 | 24.10 | 38 | 1 | NHS Morecambe Bay CCG* |
| Southwark | 383.92 | 62.70 | 2.76 | 91.00 | 8.30 | 39 | -3 | NHS Southwark CCG |
| Hackney and City of London | 219.55 | 58.60 | 2.74 | 97.80 | 7.50 | 40 | -8 | NHS City and Hackney CCG |
| Wigan | 250.85 | 61.10 | 2.92 | 101.10 | 19.00 | 41 | 17 | NHS Wigan Borough CCG |
| Darlington | 284.33 | 60.30 | 2.98 | 90.30 | 20.30 | 42 | 6 | NHS Darlington CCG |
| Bradford | 186.35 | 60.10 | 2.78 | 106.10 | 14.80 | 43 | 3 | NHS Airedale, Wharfedale and Craven CCG |
| Sefton | 305.38 | 64.00 | 2.92 | 90.90 | 23.30 | 44 | -4 | NHS South Sefton CCG |
| Blackburn with Darwen | 226.93 | 58.80 | 2.89 | 110.70 | 14.50 | 45 | -2 | NHS Blackburn with Darwen CCG |
| Lewisham | 309.02 | 60.60 | 2.86 | 99.80 | 9.40 | 46 | -5 | NHS Lewisham CCG |
| Warrington | 309.72 | 64.70 | 2.79 | 82.40 | 18.60 | 47 | 2 | NHS Warrington CCG |
| Kirklees | 141.55 | 60.50 | 2.72 | 98.60 | 17.50 | 48 | 4 | NHS Greater Huddersfield CCG |
| Nottingham | 164.01 | 57.70 | 2.81 | 121.70 | 11.50 | 49 | -6 | NHS Nottingham City CCG |
| Newham | 272.16 | 58.40 | 2.86 | 95.40 | 7.50 | 50 | -8 | NHS Newham CCG |
*CCGs marked with an asterisk are not the only CCG linked to that area. Lancashire has NHS Chorley and South Ribble CCG, NHS East Lancashire CCG, NHS Fylde and Wyre CCG, NHS Morecambe Bay CCG and NHS West Lancashire CCG. Cumbria has NHS Morecambe Bay CCG and NHS North Cumbria CCG.