COVID-19 local area health risk rating: 22 April 2020

Key findings using the latest data include:

  • In the last update Middlesbrough took over top spot as the riskiest local authority. It retains its position with a high overall case load relative to the size of its population and a high degree of underlying health system vulnerability.
  • The biggest movers in the index are in the North East – Gateshead, (now ranked 5th, has overtaken 14 local areas), Sunderland (now ranked 10th, has overtaken 15 local areas), and South Tyneside (now ranked 12th, has overtaken 37 local areas). All saw significant increases in case load over the last 10 days and have high underlying health vulnerability.
  • Blackpool was also a big mover this week (now ranked 13th, has overtaken 8 local areas). It has several markers of systemic vulnerability including very low healthy life expectancy, high mortality rates from treatable conditions and a high proportion of older people. Blackpool’s Covid-19 case load has been increasing consistently over the last month.

Commentary on the results

In the context of daily case numbers plateauing at the national level, there has been increased interest in ending the lockdown soon. Our risk ranking suggests that some of the most systemically vulnerable communities are still seeing rising case numbers so relaxing nationwide public health restrictions in the near term would likely harm the health of these communities the most (see charts below).

50 highest risk authorities (1 = most risky)

Please click here for more details about the health index including data and methods

Local authority COVID-19 cases per 100,000 Healthy life expectancy CQC score Treatable mortality % aged 65+ Overall risk score Overall rank Weekly change CCG
Middlesbrough 289.59 57.80 2.75 133.90 16.20 186.10 1 0 NHS South Tees CCG
Walsall 251.96 56.40 2.76 106.20 17.60 200.98 2 0 NHS Walsall CCG
Wirral 251.52 61.40 2.71 97.40 21.60 225.22 3 +1 NHS Wirral CCG
Wolverhampton 228.62 58.70 2.77 118.90 16.60 243.34 4 -1 NHS Wolverhampton CCG
Gateshead 299.74 60.80 2.84 99.60 19.40 272.82 5 +14 NHS Newcastle Gateshead CCG
St. Helens 273.26 59.20 2.89 101.40 20.40 274.44 6 -1 NHS St Helens CCG
Sandwell 237.03 57.10 2.83 117.60 15.00 275.66 7 -1 NHS Sandwell and West Birmingham CCG
Knowsley 284.15 58.30 2.87 113.00 17.10 278.32 8 -1 NHS Knowsley CCG
Barnsley 194.13 58.80 2.66 92.40 19.30 292.80 9 -1 NHS Barnsley CCG
Sunderland 332.35 57.90 2.92 94.70 19.40 295.32 10 +15 NHS Sunderland CCG
Halton 207.89 59.50 2.76 100.90 18.10 296.16 11 -2 NHS Halton CCG
South Tyneside 246.90 58.90 2.87 93.30 20.00 319.10 12 +37 NHS South Tyneside CCG
Blackpool 193.10 53.30 3.04 134.80 20.40 329.58 13 +8 NHS Blackpool CCG
Redcar and Cleveland 163.11 60.60 2.83 102.60 22.30 336.86 14 -4 NHS South Tees CCG
Rotherham 194.58 59.50 2.85 100.60 19.50 336.96 15 -4 NHS Rotherham CCG
Luton 226.52 59.30 2.79 109.70 12.40 342.48 16 +2 NHS Luton CCG
Oldham 205.84 58.00 2.87 111.90 16.10 353.58 17 0 NHS Oldham CCG
Dudley 189.32 59.40 2.81 89.60 20.30 359.24 18 -3 NHS Dudley CCG
Slough 212.59 58.70 2.75 101.70 10.00 363.88 19 +3 NHS East Berkshire CCG
Tameside 170.07 60.40 2.78 103.90 17.60 364.06 20 -7 NHS Tameside and Glossop CCG
Liverpool 236.86 60.70 2.85 117.70 14.70 368.50 21 -5 NHS Liverpool CCG
Birmingham 206.86 59.20 2.82 109.40 13.00 372.00 22 -8 NHS Birmingham and Solihull CCG
Sheffield 289.10 61.80 2.80 89.50 16.10 381.44 23 +1 NHS Sheffield CCG
Wakefield 119.70 58.60 2.76 94.70 18.90 385.18 24 -4 NHS Wakefield CCG
Hackney and City of London 203.10 58.60 2.74 97.80 7.50 393.36 25 -13 NHS City and Hackney CCG
Manchester 159.23 57.90 2.78 136.10 9.30 403.08 26 -3 NHS Manchester CCG
Northumberland 193.90 61.20 2.86 80.40 24.30 417.04 27 +15 NHS Northumberland CCG
Lancashire 179.33 60.40 2.88 93.26 20.50 420.92 28 -2 NHS Chorley and South Ribble CCG*
Bolton 203.94 62.50 2.86 108.20 17.20 426.82 29 +10 NHS Bolton CCG
Southwark 346.09 62.70 2.76 91.00 8.30 431.58 30 +3 NHS Southwark CCG
Newcastle upon Tyne 245.84 59.20 2.92 97.80 14.40 432.54 31 -1 NHS Newcastle Gateshead CCG
Stoke-on-Trent 118.44 57.40 2.84 102.60 17.00 434.96 32 +3 NHS Stoke on Trent CCG
Newham 249.43 58.40 2.86 95.40 7.50 436.36 33 -6 NHS Newham CCG
Kingston upon Hull, City of 99.37 57.20 2.81 118.30 15.00 438.72 34 +11 NHS Hull CCG
Salford 187.49 58.00 2.91 110.40 14.30 439.78 35 -6 NHS Salford CCG
Lewisham 272.13 60.60 2.86 99.80 9.40 440.02 36 -8 NHS Lewisham CCG
Sefton 242.20 64.00 2.92 90.90 23.30 445.28 37 +1 NHS South Sefton CCG
Cumbria 306.48 63.48 2.97 83.61 24.10 445.88 38 -2 NHS Morecambe Bay CCG
Stockton-on-Tees 122.20 57.50 2.83 91.40 18.10 446.22 39 -8 NHS Hartlepool and Stockton-on-Tees CCG
Bury 183.05 60.40 2.89 96.80 18.20 451.90 40 +1 NHS Bury CCG
Hartlepool 101.89 58.10 2.89 106.10 19.30 454.98 41 -4 NHS Hartlepool and Stockton-on-Tees CCG
Barking and Dagenham 192.45 60.10 2.82 104.60 9.30 455.46 42 -8 NHS Barking and Dagenham CCG
Nottingham 118.10 57.70 2.81 121.70 11.50 457.30 43 -11 NHS Nottingham City CCG
Blackburn with Darwen 162.48 58.80 2.89 110.70 14.50 466.50 44 +9 NHS Blackburn with Darwen CCG
County Durham 183.31 59.30 2.96 88.20 20.60 466.62 45 +13 NHS Durham Dales, Easington and Sedgefield CCG
Kirklees 101.20 60.50 2.72 98.60 17.50 470.60 46 -3 NHS Greater Huddersfield CCG
Bradford 112.07 60.10 2.78 106.10 14.80 470.98 47 +3 NHS Airedale, Wharfedale and Craven CCG
Ealing 272.53 63.80 2.71 85.80 12.80 476.28 48 -1 NHS Ealing CCG
Havering 220.71 64.20 2.82 88.80 18.00 479.90 49 -3 NHS Havering CCG
Warrington 219.52 64.70 2.79 82.40 18.60 485.58 50 +7 NHS Warrington CCG

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